March Quarter Analysis 2020

Confidence returns in 2020

The latest Business Expectations survey shows a confident attitude from the business sector moving into 2020, sparking hopes the new year will be a stronger one for the economy.

The expectations index soared to an all-time high, while actuals recovered from a rocky previous quarter, lifted by noteworthy turnarounds in the retail and construction sectors.

“After several months of doom and gloom, key sectors of the economy are recovering, sparking a more optimistic tone going into the new year. While this is good news, the uncertain global climate, and the impact of the bushfires, could cut the upswing short in the coming months” - Simon Bligh illion CEO

Key Insights:

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“If the surge in optimism in the retail sector translates to a much-needed boost to household consumption, GDP growth could approach 3 per cent by the end of 2020 and into 2021, which would help drive the unemployment rate lower. This positive outlook would climb higher still if the RBA delivers an additional cut in official interest rates, as the market is currently expecting within the next few months. While there are still risks, record low interest rates, a pick-up in world economic growth and a low and competitive level for the Australian dollar are all working to deliver an improvement in economic conditions.” - Stephen Koukoulas - illion Senior Economist

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